Game of Thrones in North Korea: Will Kim be succeeded by his daughter or sister?

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Foto: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
Recent news from North Korea has fueled speculation about the country's future and President Kim Jong Un's plans for his succession, with his sister gaining more formal power while his young daughter receives greater media exposure.

Kim Jo Jong, the leader's sister, was promoted to ministerial level, or the post of party chief, at the 9th Congress of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

She has also been nominated as a candidate for the Politburo – the elite party body that answers directly to Kim Jong Un.

At the same time, the North Korean leader appears to be making moves to establish his daughter Kim Yu Aye, believed to be 13, as next in line to take power. She has appeared alongside her father at important events, including a nighttime military parade last Wednesday.

Possible rivalries in the Kim family

Kim Jong Un's efforts to push his daughter to the forefront could spark a power struggle with her powerful aunt, Rah Jong-jil, a former deputy head of South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) and former ambassador to the UK, the Telegraph reports.

However, another former deputy head of NIS, Han Ki Bum, told German wave that such speculation about a power struggle is "a hypothetical scenario with a low degree of credibility."

"For example, psychological tensions or rivalry may exist between Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un's wife, and Kim Jo Jong. Ri Sol Ju can convey this to her husband, but Kim Jo Jong, as the leader's assistant, must obey her brother's authority. Therefore, even if tensions between them currently exist, they cannot be discussed openly," Han said.

"The key thing is that Kim Yoo Ae is about 13 years old and did not attend the congress. She is too young to be considered an heir," Han said. He added that Kim's power base has not yet been fully consolidated. 

"Succession discussions are a distant scenario, only relevant if Kim were to face serious health problems in about two decades," he said.

Han explained that Kim's frequent public appearances alongside his daughter serve to emphasize continuity and affirm his leadership.

“Bringing Kim Yu-ah to a rocket launch or military training site sends a message about the future generation,” Han said.

Speculations "premature"

Kim Hjongseok, a former South Korean deputy unification minister, said Kim Ju A could symbolically represent the future generation. However, he added that it would be difficult to give her any formal title due to her young age.

As for speculation about a rivalry between Kim Jong Un's daughter and sister, the expert said this scenario is unlikely - for now.

"These rumors emerged as Kim Yo Jong gained importance in inter-Korean and foreign policy, coinciding with renewed talks about a possible succession for Kim Yoo Ae," he said. 

He added that "if Kim Yu Aye were formally confirmed as heir apparent and an unusual situation arose regarding Kim Jong Un, that possibility could be considered."

Former Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Jun-hee said Kim Jong Un could continue to informally "raise" his daughter's profile.

"Speculation about a power struggle is premature. A framework for succession can only be established after all challengers are completely eliminated," Jeong said.

He warned that if Kim Jo Jong ever becomes an obstacle to Kim Jong Un's succession plans, the North Korean leader will deal with her firmly, "regardless of the fact that she is his sister."

"However, if Kim Jong Un suddenly dies, Kim Jo Jong could position herself as the central power figure, although other ambitious figures within the military could emerge," Jeong added.

Is Kim Yu-ah already too famous to leave the country?

Another former senior official at South Korea's Unification Ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity, said experts remained divided on whether Kim Yoo-ah was even nominated as a successor.

"There may be ceremonial gestures to raise her profile, but it is too early to formally declare her as heir apparent," the official said.

He added that "this would normally be a time for her to study somewhere abroad, like her father and aunt once did in Switzerland." 

"However, her current level of public exposure makes it difficult to pursue education abroad," the official said.

He added that "a defected North Korean diplomat once told him that it would be impossible for Kim Jo Jong to become ruler of North Korea."

"This is because direct descendants traditionally have priority in inheriting power in North Korea, making it highly unlikely that a sister would inherit a leadership position," the South Korean official added.

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