<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gold is not falling because demand has disappeared. It is falling because marginal flow has shifted from discretionary buying to forced selling in a macro environment where energy-fueled inflation has pushed up real yields, strengthened the US dollar and blocked the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why is gold falling while the war is still active?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Gold hit $5,423 on March 2, the peak of the initial safe-haven response to the February 28 attacks on Iran. Within three weeks, it had recovered roughly 25 percent from peak to trough from that height of the conflict, reaching a cyclical low near $4,079\u2014while tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz were about five a day, Brent crude was trading above $100, and the geopolitical backdrop had not calmed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The standard safe haven framework does not explain this sequence. The macro framework does. Gold determines the price of the consequences of war, not the event itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The transmission mechanism operates through two simultaneous channels. The first is inflation expectations. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel, changing the market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's policy path. <\/p>\n\n\n\n By early 2026, futures markets were pricing in two rate cuts. By March 18, the median projection of the FOMC dot plot held to one cut for the full year, at the December meeting, with seven of the nineteen participants forecasting no cuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It is crucial that markets price in an inflationary shock before it appears in official consumer price index (CPI) data. Core PCE was already 3.1 percent year-on-year in January before the energy shock. <\/p>\n\n\n\n CPI readings for March and April, the first to capture the Ormus-induced pass-through, have not yet been released. The forward inflation signal is therefore more unfavorable than any published data so far reflects, according to Investing.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold has fallen 21 percent since its January peak despite rising geopolitical risk, breaking the conventional safe-haven framework.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":598185,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[3447,5454],"naslovna":[],"class_list":["post-949260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-svijet","tag-inflacija","tag-zlato"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=949260"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":949261,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949260\/revisions\/949261"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=949260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=949260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=949260"},{"taxonomy":"naslovna","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradski.me\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naslovna?post=949260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}